Certainty Effect

We crave clarity over chance and make costly sacrifices to get it

Guaranteed inferior gains are valued over superior ones that have some risk. When faced with uncertain times, certainty is a feeling that we place a premium on.

Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.

The study

Setup

77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.

What’s a Rich Text element?

The rich text element allows you to create and format headings, paragraphs, blockquotes, images, and video all in one place instead of having to add and format them individually. Just double-click and easily create content.

Static and dynamic content editing

A rich text element can be used with static or dynamic content. For static content, just drop it into any page and begin editing. For dynamic content, add a rich text field to any collection and then connect a rich text element to that field in the settings panel. Voila!

How to customize formatting for each rich text

Headings, paragraphs, blockquotes, figures, images, and figure captions can all be styled after a class is added to the rich text element using the "When inside of" nested selector system.

Results

78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).

np_read_2490885_000000

Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.

Key Takeaways

Certainty is valued highly.

What ways can your business create reassurance or guarantees that make consumers feel safe?  How can you use exclusive certainty to reward and foster a sense of status with your brand?

Stick to your promises!

Letting consumers down, even once, will trigger uncertainty in the quality perceptions of your brand. If making claims about being the best at something, don’t ever give consumers reason to question that and turn a selling point into an unsustainable headache.

Reframe uncertain offers to appear certain.

The uncertain frame here requires consumers to calculate proportional savings, but the certain frame removes this by showing certainty of a zero-priced third lemon.

Certainty Effect

We crave clarity over chance and make costly sacrifices to get it

Guaranteed inferior gains are valued over superior ones that have some risk. When faced with uncertain times, certainty is a feeling that we place a premium on.

Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.

The study

Setup

77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.

Results

78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).

Key Takeaways

Certainty is valued highly.

What ways can your business create reassurance or guarantees that make consumers feel safe?  How can you use exclusive certainty to reward and foster a sense of status with your brand?

Stick to your promises!

Letting consumers down, even once, will trigger uncertainty in the quality perceptions of your brand. If making claims about being the best at something, don’t ever give consumers reason to question that and turn a selling point into an unsustainable headache.

Reframe uncertain offers to appear certain.

The uncertain frame here requires consumers to calculate proportional savings, but the certain frame removes this by showing certainty of a zero-priced third lemon.

Certainty Effect

We crave clarity over chance and make costly sacrifices to get it

Guaranteed inferior gains are valued over superior ones that have some risk. When faced with uncertain times, certainty is a feeling that we place a premium on.

The study

Setup

77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.

Results

78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).

np_read_2490885_000000

In detail

Connected to

Running workshops?

Certainty Effect

is included in Box One of our physical workshop tool.
is included in Box Two of our physical workshop tool.
Box One