Confirmation Bias

We look for information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore what doesn’t

Mental shortcuts, overconfidence and a desire to appear consistent lead us to maintain flawed, one-sided viewpoints that cause poor decisions.

McClure, Li, Tomlin, Cypert, Montague & Montague (2004). Neural correlates of behavioral preference for culturally familiar drinks. Neuron, 44(2), 379-387.

The study

Setup

67 people were asked if they prefer Coke, Pepsi or have no preference, split into taster groups and given 3 rounds of both in either unlabeled or labeled cups.

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Results

Taste preferences were split evenly when the drinks were unlabeled, but when labeled, they exhibited a strong taste preference for Coke, underlining the bias of brand attachment in consumer choice.

np_read_2490885_000000

McClure, Li, Tomlin, Cypert, Montague & Montague (2004). Neural correlates of behavioral preference for culturally familiar drinks. Neuron, 44(2), 379-387.

Key Takeaways

Test your assumptions. Decision-Makers often start new projects under judgements that are both unproven and erroneous. Bring key Decision-Makers together to list assumptions honestly. Use these as a basis for testing the validity of the idea in its simplest form. This avoids unnecessary costs further down the line. See the Lean Startup Model for further details.

Consider conflicting alternatives to strengthen your strategic decision-making process. Seek impartial feedback from trusted others who are less emotionally invested in the chosen route than you.

Repeatedly point out what you do well, especially with attention to small details around customer care or craftsmanship in process. Consumers will begin to notice and start to look for further evidence to support these newly-held beliefs.

Confirmation Bias

We look for information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore what doesn’t

Mental shortcuts, overconfidence and a desire to appear consistent lead us to maintain flawed, one-sided viewpoints that cause poor decisions.

McClure, Li, Tomlin, Cypert, Montague & Montague (2004). Neural correlates of behavioral preference for culturally familiar drinks. Neuron, 44(2), 379-387.

The study

Setup

67 people were asked if they prefer Coke, Pepsi or have no preference, split into taster groups and given 3 rounds of both in either unlabeled or labeled cups.

Results

Taste preferences were split evenly when the drinks were unlabeled, but when labeled, they exhibited a strong taste preference for Coke, underlining the bias of brand attachment in consumer choice.

Key Takeaways

Test your assumptions. Decision-Makers often start new projects under judgements that are both unproven and erroneous. Bring key Decision-Makers together to list assumptions honestly. Use these as a basis for testing the validity of the idea in its simplest form. This avoids unnecessary costs further down the line. See the Lean Startup Model for further details.

Consider conflicting alternatives to strengthen your strategic decision-making process. Seek impartial feedback from trusted others who are less emotionally invested in the chosen route than you.

Repeatedly point out what you do well, especially with attention to small details around customer care or craftsmanship in process. Consumers will begin to notice and start to look for further evidence to support these newly-held beliefs.

Confirmation Bias

We look for information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore what doesn’t

Mental shortcuts, overconfidence and a desire to appear consistent lead us to maintain flawed, one-sided viewpoints that cause poor decisions.

The study

Setup

67 people were asked if they prefer Coke, Pepsi or have no preference, split into taster groups and given 3 rounds of both in either unlabeled or labeled cups.

Results

Taste preferences were split evenly when the drinks were unlabeled, but when labeled, they exhibited a strong taste preference for Coke, underlining the bias of brand attachment in consumer choice.

np_read_2490885_000000

In detail

Pairings

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Related "Wilds"

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Connected to

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Confirmation Bias

is included in Box One of our physical workshop tool.
is included in Box Two of our physical workshop tool.
Box One