11k people were offered a new job that had a 50% chance of doubling income for life, but it wasn't without risk, with an equal chance of it falling by either 20, 33 or 50%. Questioning started with the 33% gamble; if people took it, they were asked if they’d take the bigger 50% gamble too. But if they didn’t, they were asked about the smaller 20% one.

Results put people into four risk categories showing the majority were not willing to take any risk at all.

Focus on an improvement metric. 

We prefer the certainty of what we’re used to, so the benefits of switching to a new product need to feel substantial.

Outline a goal (relative performance, efficiency etc.) to anchor your product strategy around.

Doing so will reduce uncertainty and boost comparisons against better-known, lower risk alternatives.

Offer a trial or free sample...

...to create familiarity and reduce the risk around a new product.

This sets the cost of new product usage at zero, during which the consumer will adjust their future preferences.

Utilize your brand umbrella.

For any new sub-brands, reduce risk by clearly indicating the relationship to existing, familiar brands you own (Erdem, 1998).  

Product brands take note. Risk aversion is higher for material purchases than for experiential ones such as restaurant meals or holidays (Roche et al., 2015).

77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.

78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).

Certainty is valued highly.‍

What ways can your business create reassurance or guarantees that make consumers feel safe?  How can you use exclusive certainty to reward and foster a sense of status with your brand?

Stick to your promises!

Letting consumers down, even once, will trigger uncertainty in the quality perceptions of your brand. If making claims about being the best at something, don’t ever give consumers reason to question that and turn a selling point into an unsustainable headache.

Reframe uncertain offers to appear certain.‍

The uncertain frame here requires consumers to calculate proportional savings, but the certain frame removes this by showing certainty of a zero-priced third lemon.

84 people were shown an ad for a known clothing brand that they either had an existing loyalty to or not, written either assertively or not. Based upon the ad, they were then asked how much from a $25 gift card they'd spend.

People spent less money after viewing an assertive ad next to a non-assertive ad, especially when loyal.

Don’t misuse behavioural principles.

‍We've seen a rising use of faux-scarcity to create an uneasy sense of urgency as well as an aggressive use of Defaults that aren't in customers' best interests. Such applications turn positive activities, like booking a holiday into ones riddled with stress.

Give some control (Miller et al., 2007).

Having a feeling of choice can reduce feelings that our freedoms are being taken away. Mix Autonomy with Certainty by reminding of the inevitability ahead while granting other areas where you can give back control in meaningful ways.

Give lots of warning up-front

‍If you're planning a big change that will clearly trigger reactance (Richards and Banas, 2015), giving time for the news to sink in, let people familiarise themselves with the new, uncomfortable normal will then reduce reactance when the change does come about.

Over 27,000 Israelis were mailed a self-administering Colorectal Cancer test kit. The kit either included an “if–then” leaflet with instructions of when, where, and how to perform the test or a standard leaflet with no such planning instructions (control group). They were then asked 2 and 6 months later whether they took the test.

71.4% of the If-then plan recipients took the test compared to 67.9% of the control group meaning If-Then plans resulted in 6.6% more of participants taking the test.

Whether designing for yourself or for others, here's how to make an easy, effective If-Then Plan:

First, define the goal.

If for you, it might be to exercise more. If for others, it might be to reduce an organisation's water waste. What existing behaviour are you looking to reduce or reinforce? Alternatively, what new, aspirational behaviour might you be looking to foster?

Identify your "If" context

This will become the future cue or environment that we'll recognise. It'll provide a clear, detectable moment to do something, even if you're busy or tired. Pick scenarios that are encountered often (E.g. on a daily basis, like an office lobby) to boost effectiveness.

E.g. "If/when I'm waiting for the elevator…"

Choose a behavioural "then" response

This is the specific behaviour that will get you closer to the goal you defined. The easier it is to recall and do, the more it will be done. For instance, what small, relevant and easy-to-recall behaviour can I do IF I'm waiting for the elevator?

E.g. "I will take the stairs"

Planning these steps out in advance and defining exactly how one should respond in the situation creates a strong, repeatable link between seeing and doing.

E.g. "If I have to wait for the elevator, then I will take the stairs"

Note: If designing for others, to ensure it'll be easy and fits within the context you're designing for, consider roleplaying it out before you roll it out. Role before you roll, if you will.

Inform, do not instruct.

A vivid, relatable and subtly persuasive image or message will be more effective to change consumer behaviour, whereas instructing them could be met with reactance. Remove this threat to personal freedom by giving consumers more autonomy when they make decisions.

Ideally, If-Thens should be defined at least in part by the person themselves. However, there are creative workarounds; companies could set and share strategic goals, with employees writing their own If-Then Plans to help achieve such goals.

What info we decide to surface visually has a powerful effect on peoples’ decisions. The same is also true for what we choose to hide.

For instance, if I wanted to design a work environment where people ate more fruit, I could buy bananas and apples but store them in the fridge, out of view.

But this would have what we call “low salience”, or a low likelihood of being seen.

Instead, to boost fruit consumption further, we’d want to increase Salience.

So now, instead of hiding the fruit in the fridge, we put it in large colourful bowls in central, highly visible areas of the office in eye line and within arm’s reach.

Now the fruit have “high salience” and are much more likely to be eaten.

Note that this also has second order effects; more salience from the fruit bowls means more people eating fruit, creating a powerful salience cycle.

What do you want people to do more or be more aware of? How can you increase its salience next to other things?

Another strategy is to remove other things around it to increase salience in relative terms. So in the fruit example, we might want to remove the coffee machine to give the bowls greater salience.

What info we decide to surface visually has a powerful effect on peoples’ decisions. The same is also true for what we choose to hide.

For instance, if I wanted to design a work environment where people ate more fruit, I could buy bananas and apples but store them in the fridge, out of view.

But this would have what we call “low salience”, or a low likelihood of being seen.

Instead, to boost fruit consumption further, we’d want to increase Salience.

So now, instead of hiding the fruit in the fridge, we put it in large colourful bowls in central, highly visible areas of the office in eye line and within arm’s reach.

Now the fruit have “high salience” and are much more likely to be eaten.

Note that this also has second order effects; more salience from the fruit bowls means more people eating fruit, creating a powerful salience cycle.

What do you want people to do more or be more aware of? How can you increase its salience next to other things?

Another strategy is to remove other things around it to increase salience in relative terms. So in the fruit example, we might want to remove the coffee machine to give the bowls greater salience.

Over 10 days, millions of people using online ticket marketplace Stubhub were put into two groups, where 15% ticket fees were either made salient up front during ticket browsing, or hidden until checkout.

Results found that for those with delayed salience of the fee, revenue increased by 21%, with a quarter of this due to higher priced tickets being bought.

What is seen is what is done

Surfacing key information in a timely fashion can prompt us to do more of what we aspire to. For instance, Amazon have redesigned their Kindle so that when it's not in use, the screensaver becomes the cover of the book you're currently reading. This acts as a salient reminder to read as one notices the Kindle throughout the day. We can use the same approach to boost healthy eating, having a bowl of fruit on the kitchen table over one filled with salty cashews. What do you want users to do more of? How do you want them to feel? What unique or delightful features can you surface that will help inspire action and make Tiny Habits that much more likely to form?

More knowledge isn't necessarily better

There's a trade-off between what's presented to us now and making good decisions for our future. For instance, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase choose to omit the % gained or lost from one's investments. Research shows that if they instead showed this, people may incorrectly sell coins that have increased in value, while keeping coins that have dropped in value, known as the Disposition Effect.

Differentiate by removing information

Whereas knowledge can be power, it can also demotivate. For example, weight loss scales Shapa does away with the number telling you how much you weigh, instead providing 5 colour bands denoting averaged performance. Omitting the number shifts us away from short term fluctuations in weight that can lead to feelings of failure causing us to give up. What information or options could you hide that could otherwise lead users to short term or harmful outcomes? What can you remove that could confuse or overwhelm?

Delayed salience can trigger shock

Also consider the ethical implications of hiding key information, as in the study above. In this case, any reactance felt will be relative to the proportion of the extra fees incurred, customer expectations, industry norms and how frequent the transaction is. Hidden fees on more regular transactions like grocery shopping will be subject to higher levels of reactance than one-offs like a car purchase. There is an art to surfacing such painful information at the correct time in order to generate a sale. Try adding an explanation of why the fee exists to reduce drop-off, like Airbnb do.

733 new employees of a health company used a single opt-in process to subscribe to a retirement plan. Results were compared to a multi-step phone process used with 455 and 407  employees from the two previous years.

Participation rates were 5% after one month and 8% after three months. With the new process, they rose to 19% and 35% respectively.

Perform a friction audit.

Identify all the hurdles and delays your user may feel while using your product and attempt to minimise them. How many barriers to a near-effortless user experience can you find?

Adding friction can help people from making mistakes.

Add barriers to counter System 1 mode, prompting users for conscious reflection to validate important information (e.g. monetary transactions). What strategic friction can you create?

Add friction to make waiting times feel shorter.

Houston airport reduced the number of luggage waiting times complaints by moving the luggage area further away so that passengers spent more time walking and less time waiting.

Remove friction but highlight effort.

Our willingness to pay for something increases by knowing how much work is done for us. We pay more for a cup of coffee if we see the barista working on it for several minutes.

249 supermarket customers were invited to one of two tables, displaying either 24 jams or 6 jams. They were then asked how attractive the jams were and observed as to whether they bought one.

The results found that though customers considered the 24 jams more attractive, they were far more likely to buy when there were only 6 jams to choose from.

Reduce choice difficulty. If customers are time-poor, reduce the number of dimensions along which your products are compared. Present choices in an organised, non-random order, especially with visual layouts. 

Tidy up choice relationships. Highlight one dominant option, align the attributes along which products are compared, and eliminate products from your range that overly complement each other to decrease deferral and increase purchase likelihood.

Adapt to product expertise. Who is your audience? To what extent can they weigh up the benefits of each possible choice? Experts prefer more choice and the lesser-informed crave less.

Build around intent & focus. Intent: are they buying or merely browsing? If browsing, they’re not making a decision, and are less likely to feel overloaded. Focus: a single purchase or a bundle? Bundlers want more options, but Singles want fewer.